The Probabilistic Extra-Tropical Storm Surge (P-ETSS) model is a modification of the ETSS model to use 21 ensemble members from the Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) to generate probabilistic storm surge products from extra-tropical storms.
Version 1.0 (Nov 06, 2017), it:
- Ran ETSS 2.2 using 21 GFS ensemble members wind and pressure (0.5 degree).
- Used equally weighted method to generate the probability.
- Generated the following products:
- Surge and tide height above NAVD-88/AGL exceeded by 10% of storms for 0-102 hours.
- Surge and tide height above NAVD-88/AGL exceeded by 10% of the storms, hourly to hour 102.
- Surge and tide height above NAVD-88/AGL exceeded by 10% of storms in 6-hr incremental and cumulative groups to hour 102 (e.g. 0-6, 6-12, 12-18,...96-102 and 0-6, 0-12,...0-102).
- Probability of surge and tide height greater than 1, 2, 3, 6, 9(10), 13, 16 feet above NAVD-88 and AGL,in 6-hr incremental and cumulative groups to hour 102 (e.g. 0-6, 6-12, 12-18,...6-102 and 0-6, 0-12,...0-102).
- Mean, max and min surge and tide height above NAVD-88 and AGL, hourly to 102 and grouped for 0-102.
Reports on the impact of P-ETSS1.0 and details Technical Implementations Notice, please go to the ETSS2.2 section.
The Extra-Tropical Storm Surge (ETSS) model is a modification of the Sea Lake and Overland Surges from Hurricanes (SLOSH) model to use Global Forecast System (GFS) wind and pressure input to predict storm surge from extra-tropical storms.
Version 2.2 (Nov. 06, 2017), it:
- Created a single basin with overland information that covers the Gulf of Alaska and the US's West Coast.
- Created new Tide version to resolve tide phase shift in Cedar Key FL (CD2), Tampa Bay FL (ETP3) and Apalachicola Bay FL (AP3).
- Incorporated 13 tidal constituents from Notre Dame's ADCIRC model in the Bering-Beaufort-Chukchi Sea (eBBC) basin.
- Corrected a bug causing wiggle seen in some station guidance from ETSS 2.1.
- Extended the guidance from 96 to 102 hours.
- Experimentally generated a maximum storm tide above NAVD-88 over the next 102 hours product.
- Migrated to Cray.
- Discontinued providing AWIPS with 5.0 km CONUS and 6.0 km AK gridded products.
- General Enhancements / Bug fixes (-check bounds IT test, improve
merge mask, make adjustments to the CSV files so they are
self-describing, add comments to the SHEF output and remove a bug in the linear interpolation for
the post-processing codes).
Reports on the impact of ETSS 2.2
For more details, please see the latest ETSS 2.2 Technical Implementation Notice.
Version 2.1 (Nov. 3, 2015), it:
- Introduced the Bering-Beaufort-Chukchi Sea (BBC) basin (also: Uncertainty Analysis) to (a) allow water to flow through the Bering Strait and (b) retire the older Bering and Arctic basins.
- Added tidal forcing to the all grids.
- Produced overland inundation (based on surge and tide) for the East Coast, Gulf of Mexico, West Coast, and Alaska.
- Note: Higher resolution (625m) is available for the East Coast and Gulf of Mexico.
- Corrected the SHEF encoding to use MLLW.
- Supportted more stations via the SHEF encoding.
Reports on the impact of ETSS 2.1
For more details, please see the latest ETSS 2.1 Technical Implementation Notice.
Version 2.0 (May 19, 2015), it:
- Nested coarse extra-tropical with fine scale tropical basins.
- Produced overland inundation (based on storm surge only) for the East Coast and Gulf of Mexico.
- Produced to the coastline guidance for the West Coast and Alaska.
- Introduced a post processing stage to create bias corrected total water level SHEF messages by combining ETSS surge guidance with Center for Operational Oceanographic Products and Services' (CO-OPS) station based tidal predictions and observations (where available).
- Note: These were encoded using Mean Higher High Water (MHHW) instead of the correct Mean Lower Low Water (MLLW) vertical datum.
Reports on the impact of ETSS 2.0
For more details, please see the latest ETSS 2.0 Technical Implementation Notice.
Version 1.5 (Oct. 14, 2014), it:
- Switched input from GFS 1 degree (Grib 1) to 0.5 degree (Grib 2) winds and pressure.
- Switched output from 5/6 km NDFD CONUS/Alaska to 2.5/3.0 km NDFD CONUS/Alaska.
- Corrected mask for south Bering Sea just north of Aleutian Islands to use Bering Sea vs. Gulf of Alaska guidance.
- Modified scripts to vertical structure.
Reports on the impact of ETSS 1.5
For more details, please see the latest ETSS 1.5 Technical Implementation Notice