New Implementation (ETSS 2.3/P-ETSS 1.1)
The Extra-Tropical Storm Surge (ETSS) model is a modification of the Sea Lake and Overland Surges from Hurricanes (SLOSH) model to use 0.5 degree Global Forecast System (GFS) wind and pressure input to predict storm tide (surge + tide) from extra-tropical storms. Four times a day, it creates storm tide guidance including overland calculation for extratropical storms in the continental U.S. and Alaska.
The Probabilistic Extra-Tropical Storm Surge (P-ETSS) model is a modification of the ETSS model to use 21 ensemble members from the Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) to generate probabilistic storm surge products from extra-tropical storms.
(Nov 06, 2018) does the following:
- Extend the CONUS East Coast basin to cover Puerto Rico and Virgin Islands.
- Upgrade the winds from 3-hr 0.5 degree to 1-hr Semi-Lagragian 13-km resolution.
- Update the point station lists.
- Upgrade Gulf of Mexico basin to cover a gap over FL caused by upgrading the East Coast basin. Also extending it to cover all of the Gulf of Mexico and the Yucatan Peninsula.
- Operationalize image production.
- General Enhancements / Bug fixes.
(Nov. 06, 2018) does the following:
- At 00Z, 06Z, 12Z and 18Z, run ETSS 2.2 using 21 GEFS ensemble members.
- Uses equally weighted method to generate the probability to generate the following products:
- Surge and tide height above NAVD-88/AGL exceeded by 10% of storms for 0-102 hours.
- Surge and tide height above NAVD-88/AGL exceeded by 10% of the storms, hourly to hour 102.
- Surge and tide height above NAVD-88/AGL exceeded by 10% of storms in 6-hr incremental and cumulative groups to hour 102 (e.g. 0-6, 6-12, 12-18,...96-102 and 0-6, 0-12,...0-102).
- Probability of surge and tide height greater than 1, 2, 3, 6, 9(10), 13, 16 feet above NAVD-88 and AGL,in 6-hr incremental and cumulative groups to hour 102 (e.g. 0-6, 6-12, 12-18,...6-102 and 0-6, 0-12,...0-102).
- Mean, max and min surge and tide height above NAVD-88 and AGL, hourly to 102 and grouped for 0-102.
- Operationalize station bias adjustment Post-Processing and image production
Reports on the impact of ETSS 2.3/P-ETSS 1.1