ABOUT
GUIDANCE
from the Probabilistic Tropical Storm Surge (PSurge) model
For NWS' official FORECAST please go
here
MDL
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Archive data
HERE
Storm and Year
Storm Name & Year
Since names for tropical cyclones can repeat years later, the storms here are identified with the year in which they occurred.
The storms are sorted with the most recent storm first.
Michael2018
Florence2018
Gordon2018
Alberto2018
Nate2017
Maria2017
Irma2017
Harvey2017
Matthew2016
Georges1998
Floyd1999
Ike2008
Hermine2016
Fay2008
Charley2004
Dennis2005
Arthur2014
Advisory
Advisory
During a Tropical Storm or Hurricane, the National Hurricane Center produces advisories (aka advisories) typically every 6 hours. These advisories are referenced by number starting with 1 for a storm's first advisory.
The PSurge model is intiated when a hurricane watch is in effect for the Continental US, which is within 48 hrs of the onset of tropical storm force winds. This means that not all advisories for a given storm have PSurge results.
The PSurge results are valid for a time range as discussed below in the Time Grouping tooltip.
17
16
15
14
13
12
11
10
9
8
7
Type
Exceedance or Probability
Exceedance products show the maximum height, in feet, that will be exceeded by a given percentage of possible storms. For example, there is a 10% chance that a location will have water levels higher than the corresponding value in the 10% exceedance product.
Probability products show the likelihood of water above a chosen height for the area. So a 3 ft probability map will show the probability that there will be 3 ft of water throughout the entire area.
10% Exceedance Ht.
20% Exceedance Ht.
30% Exceedance Ht.
40% Exceedance Ht.
50% Exceedance Ht.
Prob. of Surge > 0ft
Prob. of Surge > 1ft
Prob. of Surge > 2ft
Prob. of Surge > 3ft
Prob. of Surge > 4ft
Prob. of Surge > 5ft
Prob. of Surge > 6ft
Prob. of Surge > 7ft
Prob. of Surge > 8ft
Prob. of Surge > 9ft
Prob. of Surge > 10ft
Prob. of Surge > 11ft
Prob. of Surge > 12ft
Prob. of Surge > 13ft
Prob. of Surge > 14ft
Prob. of Surge > 15ft
Prob. of Surge > 16ft
Prob. of Surge > 17ft
Prob. of Surge > 18ft
Prob. of Surge > 19ft
Prob. of Surge > 20ft
Datum
Datum
A vertical datum is an established surface that serves as a reference to measure or model heights and depths. All water level observations, including modeled storm surge heights, are referenced as height above a vertical reference datum.
PSurge can be displayed either above the model datum of NAVD88, or as water depth above ground level, aka "inundation heights".
For more information, see the National Ocean Service's page on datums.
Above Ground
Above Datum
Time Grouping
Incremental or Cumulative
Above Ground Only
PSurge above ground results are split into 6hourly chunks which can be displayed as either the incremental water level increase for every timestep, or as the total water height increase shown every 6 hours (cumulative).
This splitting of results helps inform when the maximum threat from storm surge will occur for a given region.
Incremental
Cumulative
Start

Stop
Animate
Above Ground Only
The above ground PSurge results show surge every 6 hours, frame 1 as the first 6 hours, frame 2 the next 6, and so on until the final frame, 17.
The Above Ground product, cumulative, frame 17, is comparable to the Above Datum product, since it is a cumulative snapshot of the entire forecast period (102 hours).
Frame:
Download Data
Data File Formats
PSurge results are available 2 formats:
SHP  geospatial vector data format for geographic information systems (GIS)
GRIB2  binary data format commonly used in meteorology to store historical and forecast weather data
Files available for download for the storm, advisory, type, datum, and time grouping chosen above.
PSurge 1.0